Last updated: 2019-11-08

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Knit directory: ebpmf_demo/

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EBPM problem

\[ \begin{align} & x_i \sim Pois(s_i \lambda_i)\\ & \lambda_i \sim g(.)\\ & g \in \mathcal{G} \end{align} \] Our goal is to estimate \(\hat{g}\) (MLE), then compute posterior \(p(\lambda_i | x_i, \hat{g})\). Here I use mixture of exponential as prior family.

See model details and derivations in https://github.com/stephenslab/ebpm/blob/master/derivations/ebpm.pdf

library(ebpm)
set.seed(123)
library(ebpm)
library(ggplot2)
library(gtools)
require(gridExtra)
Loading required package: gridExtra

experiment setup

I simulate data from the mixture of exponential, and compare fitting the poisson mean problem with MLE (\(\hat{\lambda}^{mle}_i = \frac{x_i}{s_i}\)), and ebpm_exponential_mixture with different options.
For ebpm, the options are:
* fit_true_g: use the true \(g\)
* fit_true_scale: use the true mixture components to estimate \(\hat{g}\)
* fit_est_scale: estimate mixture components from data, then estimate \(\hat{g}\)

## simulate data
n = 2000
sim = ebpm::simulate_pois_expmix(n, seed = 123)
hist(sim$x, breaks = 100, xlab = "x", main = "hist for data x")

Version Author Date
3814bfb zihao12 2019-10-22
8abb684 zihao12 2019-10-20
rmse <- function(x,y){
  return(sqrt(mean((x-y)^2)))
}
methods = c()
ll_gs = c()
rmses = c()
## true
methods = c(methods, "true")
ll_gs = c(ll_gs, sim$ll)
rmses = c(rmses, 0)

## MLE
methods = c(methods, "mle")
ll_gs = c(ll_gs, NA)
rmses = c(rmses, rmse(sim$x/sim$s, sim$lam))


## fit (with known g)
fit = ebpm::ebpm_exponential_mixture(x = sim$x, s = sim$s, g_init = sim$g, fix_g = T)
methods = c(methods, "fit_true_g")
ll_gs = c(ll_gs, fit$log_likelihood)
rmses = c(rmses, rmse(fit$posterior$mean, sim$lam))
rm(fit)

## fit (with known true scale (mixture components))
fit = ebpm::ebpm_exponential_mixture(x = sim$x, s = sim$s, scale = list(shape = sim$g$shape, scale = sim$g$scale))
methods = c(methods, "fit_true_scale")
ll_gs = c(ll_gs, fit$log_likelihood)
rmses = c(rmses, rmse(fit$posterior$mean, sim$lam))
rm(fit)

## fit (estimate scale)
fit = ebpm::ebpm_exponential_mixture(x = sim$x, s = sim$s, scale = "estimate")
methods = c(methods, "fit_est_scale")
ll_gs = c(ll_gs, fit$log_likelihood)
rmses = c(rmses, rmse(fit$posterior$mean, sim$lam))
rm(fit)

data.frame(method = methods, ll_g = ll_gs, rmse = rmses)
          method      ll_g      rmse
1           true -2909.614 0.0000000
2            mle        NA 1.0556360
3     fit_true_g -2909.614 0.7873792
4 fit_true_scale -2909.307 0.7870354
5  fit_est_scale -2911.056 0.7900987

plot the \(\lambda\)s

fit = ebpm::ebpm_exponential_mixture(x = sim$x, s = sim$s, scale = "estimate")
df = data.frame(lam_true = sim$lam,lam_hat_mle = sim$x/sim$s, lam_hat_ebpm = fit$posterior$mean)
ggplot(df)+
  geom_point(aes(x = log(lam_true + 1), y = log(lam_hat_ebpm +1)), color = "blue")+
  geom_abline(slope = 1, intercept = 0)+
  guides(fill = "color")+
  ggtitle("lam_true vs lam_hat_ebpm")

Version Author Date
3814bfb zihao12 2019-10-22
8abb684 zihao12 2019-10-20
ggplot(df)+
  geom_point(aes(x = log(lam_true + 1), y = log(lam_hat_mle + 1)), color = "blue")+
  geom_abline(slope = 1, intercept = 0)+
  guides(fill = "color")+
  ggtitle("lam_true vs lam_hat_mle")

Version Author Date
3814bfb zihao12 2019-10-22
8abb684 zihao12 2019-10-20
ggplot(df)+
  geom_point(aes(x = log(lam_hat_mle + 1), y = log(lam_hat_ebpm + 1)), color = "blue")+
  geom_abline(slope = 1, intercept = 0)+
  guides(fill = "color")+
  ggtitle("lam_hat_mle vs lam_hat_ebpm")

Version Author Date
3814bfb zihao12 2019-10-22
8abb684 zihao12 2019-10-20

sessionInfo()
R version 3.5.1 (2018-07-02)
Platform: x86_64-apple-darwin15.6.0 (64-bit)
Running under: macOS  10.14

Matrix products: default
BLAS: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/3.5/Resources/lib/libRblas.0.dylib
LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/3.5/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib

locale:
[1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8

attached base packages:
[1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     

other attached packages:
[1] gridExtra_2.3   gtools_3.8.1    ggplot2_3.2.1   ebpm_0.0.0.9002

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
 [1] Rcpp_1.0.2       compiler_3.5.1   pillar_1.4.2     later_0.8.0     
 [5] git2r_0.26.1     workflowr_1.5.0  tools_3.5.1      digest_0.6.22   
 [9] evaluate_0.14    tibble_2.1.3     gtable_0.3.0     pkgconfig_2.0.3 
[13] rlang_0.4.1      yaml_2.2.0       xfun_0.8         withr_2.1.2     
[17] stringr_1.4.0    dplyr_0.8.1      knitr_1.25       fs_1.3.1        
[21] rprojroot_1.3-2  grid_3.5.1       tidyselect_0.2.5 glue_1.3.1      
[25] R6_2.4.0         rmarkdown_1.13   mixsqp_0.2-3     purrr_0.3.2     
[29] magrittr_1.5     whisker_0.3-2    backports_1.1.5  scales_1.0.0    
[33] promises_1.0.1   htmltools_0.3.6  assertthat_0.2.1 colorspace_1.4-1
[37] httpuv_1.5.1     labeling_0.3     stringi_1.4.3    lazyeval_0.2.2  
[41] munsell_0.5.0    crayon_1.3.4